Notes on the Economy Series

by Arbor Square Associates

Data to Q4 2016:

Fourteenth Edition

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For the fourteenth edition of the Arbor Square: Notes on the Economy Series we have gathered 37 data points to provide you with an indication of the health of the economy in Q4 2016, with a particular focus on the UK and the broader European market.  In this, the second edition in the series since the UK’s decision to leave the European Union, it is not surprising that Brexit continues to weigh upon business sentiment and confidence.

While there is the overriding sense that all may not be well, with inflation now at its highest level since June 2014 and the first decline in retail sales volume (most recent 3 months on previous 3 months) since December 2013, the UK economy continues to grow and the number of people in employment is at its highest level since records began.

In 2016, private equity’s fortunes have reflected this dichotomy.  While there has been a decline in the volume and value of buyouts in Europe compared with 2015, it is predicted that, once all the data is in, 2016 will have proved to be the best year for fundraising since the global financial crisis.

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